Thursday, May 04, 2006

Prediction Fiji Election 2006 Results

From Peceli

I want to comment on the coming Fiji election. I looked through the Fiji Village predictions today and their summary. Their predictions seem to be very realistic, only there are several hurdles such as the army, the new parties and many independents. So in some seats, it can go various ways.

Last week, I thought the New Alliance would win many seats, but now I don’t think so. It will fall in the predictable pattern of racial lines and only two real contenders, SDL and Labour.

I have copied and pasted the Yellow Bucket of Fiji Village predictions.

YELLOW BUCKET PREDICTIONS

The Yellow Bucket formula

After much thought and consideration we have worked on a formula that breaks down support from the major races as follows:
Fijian SDL 75%
Labour 10%
Nationalists 5%
National Alliance and various independents the remaining 10%
Indian FLP 65%
NFP 20%
SDL 10%
Independents 5%

Proportions will vary according to area and in some cases strong independents could throw this basic formula out quite considerably. We have tried to take account of this in our analysis on a seat by seat basis.

Our formula is based on public polling prior to the election, history and our general view of performance during the campaign. We expect much debate over the Fijian numbers in particular but in the end despite the apparent abundance of independents in a number of seats, Fijian voters don't have a significant alternative party to choose that comes anywhere close to the SDL in size, branding and infrastructure. There is no CAMV this time around and while we are forecasting record Fijian support for Labour we can't see it climbing beyond 10%.

On the Indian proportions if anything we suspect we may have been too generous to the NFP but if they dip below 20% support will split evenly between those choosing to go to the SDL and those sticking with Labour.

We expect many will be surprised at our final numbers certainly they don't reflect the common view point around town that suggests a stronger Labour result but we have a history of making bold calls around the Yellow Bucket so here goes another one !!
2006 General Elections

Fijian Communal all 23 to the SDL and if that doesn't happen to "wanna be" SDL candidates
Indian Communal all 19 to Labour no questions asked !!!!!
General communal United Peoples Party 1, Ken Zinck 1 and Robin Irwin 1
Rotuma communal George Konrote Independent.
Open Seats SDL 14 FLP 11
The final result:
SDL 37
FLP 31 (we have added UPP to Labour)
Independents 3

* We add a footnote here three seats Nausori/Naitasiri, Nasinu/ Rewa and Suva City Open we have given to SDL but they could swing the other way raising an interesting scenario 34/ 34 with independents holding the balance of power. Now wouldn't that be fun!

No comments: